Mithrandir Metrics
Player Texas Rangers Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Texas Rangers

Nicky Lopez

2B · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 10", 186 lb · Age 31

Cards
21
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Texas Rangers Position 2B Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2024445409615.241.312.294.606
2025282100.042.179.042.221
2026270256415.270.322.312.634
8 Seasons2644287586852.248.311.311.622
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
11
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
19
Defense4 metrics
54
Speed2 metrics
29
Plate skills12 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.286
xwOBA current pace0.270
xwOBA rolling p500.277
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.243 0.259 0.277 0.295 0.312
wOBA
0.281 0.298 0.317 0.335 0.352
ISO
0.034 0.050 0.069 0.087 0.104
K%
12.5% 13.9% 15.5% 17.1% 18.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1
Exit velocity80.6
3
Hard-hit%22.4%
5
xBA0.304
33
xSLG0.367
6
xwOBA0.270
19
BB%5.0%
14 -43 vs proj
Bat speed62.7
2
K%15.6%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
31
Arm Strength89.1 · 2B
66
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
47
Range Runs1.5 · 2B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
4
Sprint Speed27.6 · 2B
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.5% · rebadged research
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
24
Fastball Stuff+78
1
Mithrandir Stuff+72
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
42
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Lopez, Nicky · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.270 2026-09-13: 0.2572026-09-14: 0.2572026-09-18: 0.2582026-09-19: 0.2632026-09-20: 0.2632026-09-21: 0.2642026-09-22: 0.2642026-09-23: 0.2662026-09-24: 0.2672026-09-25: 0.2672026-09-26: 0.2692026-09-27: 0.270 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

1Pitches 2025Season 100%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Lopez, Nicky · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 33%33%Whiff: 16%16%Zone contact: 89%89%Contact: 84%84%Hard hit: 22%22% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Nicky · 2025 arsenal snapshot Other: 100.0% FA100% · 64 mphprimary pitch FA 100% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Nicky · 2025 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Other: 100% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 64.3 mphFA64 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 100.0% 19 78 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height5' 10"
Weight186 lb
Debut2019-05-14
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.016
wOBA Δ+0.030

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.6σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.317
xwOBA (deserved)0.270

Lopez’s wOBA sits at 0.317, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.270 — a gap of 0.047, -1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 282 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-07-21Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding202026-09-261 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.095
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.287 xwOBA | 3 HRProjection
2026-08-15 @ ATH0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E1-4 | RBI