Mithrandir Metrics
Player Houston Astros Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Houston Astros

Hayden Wesneski

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 28

Cards
11
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Houston Astros Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024363.86287067.2671.14
2025134.5066032.0291.09
2026623.251111061.0461.13
5 Seasons16183.8585390283.02581.15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace3.50
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.80 3.28 3.82 4.36 4.84
FIP
3.38 3.65 3.95 4.25 4.53
K%
17.7% 19.2% 21.0% 22.7% 24.2%
BB%
6.1% 6.9% 7.8% 8.6% 9.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
82
ERA3.50
70
BB%8.1%
60
K%18.7%
27 -25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.301
68 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
85 +57 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed39.9%
40
Whiff%22.0%
46
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+106
77
Cutter Stuff+105
86
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+106
83
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wesneski, Hayden · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.301 2026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.2972026-09-19: 0.2972026-09-20: 0.2972026-09-21: 0.3042026-09-22: 0.3042026-09-23: 0.3042026-09-24: 0.3042026-09-25: 0.3042026-09-26: 0.3042026-09-27: 0.3012026-09-28: 0.301 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wesneski, Hayden · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wesneski, Hayden · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 29.5%4-Seam Fastball: 24.3%Sinker: 18.7%Cutter: 15.1%Changeup: 12.1%Curveball: 0.2% ST30% · 81 mphprimary pitch ST 30%FF 24%SI 19%FC 15%CH 12%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wesneski, Hayden · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sweeper: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.5 mphST81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphSinker: 19% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.6 mphSI93 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.5 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.3 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 66″ drop, 72.7 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.8% 189 106 limited sample
FB 23.7% 156 97 limited sample
SI 19.3% 127 100 limited sample
FC 14.5% 95 105 limited sample
CH 13.7% 90 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 3"
Weight210 lb
Debut2022-09-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.98
K% Δ-0.037

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.294
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.301

Wesneski’s wOBA-against sits at 0.294, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.301 — a gap of 0.007, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 61 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching112026-09-26Sweeper played up through ST/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.3% K | 4.48 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs SEA5 ER / 6 K4.0 IP