Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Diego Padres Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Diego Padres

Jeremiah Estrada

P · Bats/Throws S/R · 6' 1", 185 lb · Age 27

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club San Diego Padres Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024632.95620161.0941.07
2025453.45770373.01081.16
2026233.48330131.0381.16
5 Seasons12113.4718905181.12611.21
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal3 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace3.48
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.97 2.80 3.71 4.62 5.44
FIP
2.30 2.73 3.20 3.67 4.10
K%
28.3% 30.9% 33.7% 36.6% 39.1%
BB%
7.5% 8.9% 10.5% 12.1% 13.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA3.48
70
BB%12.4%
15 -25 vs proj
K%32.1%
97
xwOBA allowed0.286
80
Barrel allowed6.6%
65 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
73
Whiff%30.2%
93
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Slider Stuff+94
10
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Estrada, Jeremiah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.286 2026-09-18: 0.2862026-09-19: 0.2862026-09-20: 0.2862026-09-21: 0.2862026-09-22: 0.2862026-09-23: 0.2862026-09-24: 0.2862026-09-25: 0.2862026-09-26: 0.2862026-09-27: 0.2862026-09-28: 0.2862026-09-29: 0.286 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Estrada, Jeremiah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Estrada, Jeremiah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.0%Split-Finger: 32.5%Slider: 10.5% FF57% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 57%FS 33%SL 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Estrada, Jeremiah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 82.0 mphFS82 mphSlider: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 85.5% 224 107 qualified
SL 14.5% 38 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 1"
Weight185 lb
Debut2022-08-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.23
K% Δ+0.003

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.296
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.286

Estrada’s wOBA-against sits at 0.296, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.286 — a gap of 0.010, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 33 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202631.9% K | 3.25 ERAProjection
2026-04-09 vs COL0 ER / 1 K1.1 IP
2026-04-08 @ PIT0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ BOS0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ BOS0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs SF0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP