Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Lucas Erceg

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 214 lb · Age 31

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024263.366101461.2721.05
2025842.64610261.1481.17
2026445.595201348.1341.80
4 Seasons18183.98224029226.12221.37
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
12
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal6 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.57
ERA current pace5.70
ERA rolling p504.65
Observed weight51%
ERA
3.20 3.89 4.65 5.41 6.09
FIP
3.43 3.84 4.29 4.74 5.15
K%
15.8% 17.5% 19.4% 21.3% 23.0%
BB%
8.9% 10.0% 11.2% 12.4% 13.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.89
1
ERA5.70
14
BB%13.4%
8 -42 vs proj
K%15.4%
8 -42 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
30 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.8%
89 +47 vs proj
Fastball velo97.1
88
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
67
Whiff%18.9%
18 -58 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Changeup Stuff+101
45
Cutter Stuff+90
2
Fastball Stuff+104
67
Sinker Stuff+104
65
Slider Stuff+95
13
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Erceg, Lucas · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.330 2026-09-18: 0.3382026-09-19: 0.3362026-09-20: 0.3362026-09-21: 0.3362026-09-22: 0.3362026-09-23: 0.3362026-09-24: 0.3322026-09-25: 0.3322026-09-26: 0.3342026-09-27: 0.3342026-09-28: 0.3302026-09-29: 0.330 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Erceg, Lucas · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.9%Slider: 28.3%Sinker: 27.4%Changeup: 13.6%Cutter: 1.8% FF29% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 29%SL 28%SI 27%CH 14%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mphSlider: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.6 mphSL85 mphSinker: 27% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 97.0 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.6 mphCH90 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.5 mphFC94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.8% 163 104 limited sample
SL 27.6% 146 95 limited sample
SI 25.3% 134 104 limited sample
CH 13.8% 73 101 limited sample
FC 2.5% 13 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 2"
Weight214 lb
Debut2023-05-19
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.96
K% Δ-0.067

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

3.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.423
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.330

Erceg’s wOBA-against sits at 0.423, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.330 — a gap of 0.094, 3.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 50 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.2% K | 3.74 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs BAL1 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs CWS0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ CLE0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs MIL2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs MIN0 ER / 0 K0.2 IP