Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Daniel Lynch IV

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 6", 200 lb · Age 29

Cards
8
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024203.32163143.1390.99
2025623.06572167.2451.36
2026664.085610186.0561.15
6 Seasons25314.47180663449.03511.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal6 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace4.13
ERA rolling p504.00
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.88 3.41 4.00 4.59 5.12
FIP
3.38 3.80 4.27 4.74 5.16
K%
15.9% 17.1% 18.5% 19.9% 21.1%
BB%
6.5% 7.2% 8.1% 9.0% 9.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
82
ERA4.13
48
BB%8.1%
60
K%17.4%
17 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.327
33
Barrel allowed6.7%
63 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo94.2
47
Hard-hit allowed38.1%
53
Whiff%21.5%
41 -20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Sinker Stuff+101
38
Changeup Stuff+105
74
Curveball Stuff+103
68
Fastball Stuff+95
12
Slider Stuff+103
64
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lynch IV, Daniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.327 2026-09-13: 0.3142026-09-14: 0.3142026-09-18: 0.3092026-09-19: 0.3092026-09-20: 0.3092026-09-21: 0.3092026-09-22: 0.3092026-09-23: 0.3272026-09-24: 0.3272026-09-25: 0.3272026-09-26: 0.3272026-09-27: 0.327 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lynch IV, Daniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lynch IV, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.8%Changeup: 24.7%Slider: 19.3%4-Seam Fastball: 16.0%Knuckle Curve: 9.2% SI31% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 31%CH 25%SL 19%FF 16%KC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lynch IV, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mphSlider: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.3 mphSL87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.7 mphKC82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.9% 243 101 qualified
CH 24.4% 192 105 limited sample
SL 18.8% 148 103 limited sample
FB 15.9% 125 95 limited sample
CB 9.9% 78 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 6"
Weight200 lb
Debut2021-05-03
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.46
K% Δ-0.022

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.306
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.327

IV’s wOBA-against sits at 0.306, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.327 — a gap of 0.021, -0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 83 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching82026-09-22Sinker played up through SI/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.6% K | 4.59 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs BOS0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 ER / 2 K1.1 IP
2026-04-15 @ DET0 ER / 1 K0.1 IP
2026-04-12 vs CWS0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 @ CLE0 ER / 1 K1.1 IP