Mithrandir Metrics
Player Athletics Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Athletics

Hogan Harris

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 3", 230 lb · Age 29

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Athletics Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024442.86219072.1611.35
2025213.20480464.2651.35
2026423.337401770.1881.45
4 Seasons13134.061571521270.12701.41
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.33
ERA rolling p503.58
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.44 2.98 3.58 4.19 4.73
FIP
3.62 3.93 4.28 4.62 4.93
K%
22.6% 24.0% 25.5% 27.1% 28.4%
BB%
9.9% 10.9% 11.9% 13.0% 14.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
28
ERA3.33
75
BB%13.6%
8 -24 vs proj
K%27.8%
85 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.298
70 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.3%
53
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed34.1%
81
Whiff%22.6%
50 +15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Changeup Stuff+105
71
Cutter Stuff+91
2
Slider Stuff+96
13
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Harris, Hogan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.298 2026-09-13: 0.2982026-09-14: 0.3022026-09-18: 0.2992026-09-19: 0.2992026-09-20: 0.2992026-09-21: 0.2992026-09-22: 0.2992026-09-23: 0.2982026-09-24: 0.2972026-09-25: 0.2972026-09-26: 0.2982026-09-27: 0.298 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 62%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Harris, Hogan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harris, Hogan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 61.9%Curveball: 26.5%Slider: 6.2%Changeup: 3.9%Cutter: 1.3%Slurve: 0.3% FF62% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 62%CU 26%SL 6%CH 4%FC 1%SV 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harris, Hogan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 62% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 68″ drop, 74.0 mphCU74 mphSlider: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 85.6 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 83.9 mphCH84 mphCutter: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 91.7 mphFC92 mphSlurve: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 80.4 mphSV80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 61.7% 561 105 qualified
CB 25.7% 234 102 qualified
SL 7.5% 68 96 limited sample
CH 3.6% 33 105 limited sample
FC 1.4% 13 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 3"
Weight230 lb
Debut2023-04-14
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.70
K% Δ+0.054

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.331
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.298

Harris’s wOBA-against sits at 0.331, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.298 — a gap of 0.033, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 71 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12023-08-024-Seam Fastball played up through CH/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.3% K | 4.03 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ LAA0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ SEA0 ER / 2 K1.2 IP
2026-04-15 vs TEX0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-14 vs TEX0 ER / 0 K0.2 IP
2026-04-12 @ NYM0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP