Mithrandir Metrics
Player WSH Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / WSH

Matt Waldron

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 185 lb · Age 30

Cards
5
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club WSH Position -- Roster profile Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20247114.9127260146.21331.26
2025017.711104.232.57
2026226.54174042.2331.59
4 Seasons10175.1653370235.12001.34
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal5 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.36
ERA current pace6.54
ERA rolling p505.40
Observed weight48%
ERA
3.91 4.61 5.40 6.19 6.90
FIP
3.37 3.80 4.28 4.75 5.18
K%
16.2% 17.8% 19.4% 21.1% 22.6%
BB%
5.1% 5.9% 6.8% 7.7% 8.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.62
11
ERA6.54
5
BB%6.4%
86 +24 vs proj
K%17.8%
19 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.292
76 +46 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
80 +43 vs proj
Fastball velo92.0
15
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
62
Whiff%15.8%
5 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+100
36
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+108
89
Slider Stuff+102
48
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Waldron, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.292 2026-09-13: 0.2922026-09-14: 0.2922026-09-18: 0.2922026-09-19: 0.2922026-09-20: 0.2922026-09-21: 0.2922026-09-22: 0.2922026-09-23: 0.2922026-09-24: 0.2922026-09-25: 0.2922026-09-26: 0.2922026-09-27: 0.292 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Waldron, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waldron, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckleball: 31.1%Cutter: 19.8%4-Seam Fastball: 17.8%Sinker: 17.0%Sweeper: 14.2% KN31% · 81 mphprimary pitch KN 31%FC 20%FF 18%SI 17%ST 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waldron, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Knuckleball: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 80.6 mphKN81 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.0 mphFC88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphSinker: 17% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.7 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 30.0% 105 100 limited sample
FB 25.4% 89 102 limited sample
SI 23.1% 81 108 limited sample
SL 21.4% 75 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+2.13
K% Δ-0.033

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

4.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.430
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.292

Waldron’s wOBA-against sits at 0.430, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.292 — a gap of 0.138, 4.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 47 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching52026-08-26Run prevention outpaced the underlying contact signals
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.1% K | 4.41 ERAProjection