Mithrandir Metrics
Player CHC Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / CHC

David Peterson

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 6", 240 lb · Age 31

Cards
27
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club CHC Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241032.9021210121.01011.29
2025964.2230300168.21501.37
2026984.7932231148.11371.50
7 Seasons46384.251631381771.07511.40
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal6 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace4.79
ERA rolling p504.58
Observed weight75%
ERA
3.34 3.93 4.58 5.24 5.83
FIP
3.26 3.60 3.98 4.36 4.70
K%
18.8% 19.6% 20.6% 21.6% 22.5%
BB%
8.3% 8.8% 9.5% 10.1% 10.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
22
ERA4.79
30
BB%9.7%
41
K%20.3%
37
xwOBA allowed0.333
28
Barrel allowed6.0%
74 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo92.3
18
Hard-hit allowed40.4%
35
Whiff%21.2%
37 -20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Fastball Stuff+98
20
Mithrandir Stuff+101
36
Sinker Stuff+98
21
Slider Stuff+106
80
Changeup Stuff+105
72
Curveball Stuff+100
22
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peterson, David · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.333 2026-09-14: 0.3412026-09-18: 0.3372026-09-19: 0.3372026-09-20: 0.3372026-09-21: 0.3342026-09-22: 0.3342026-09-23: 0.3342026-09-24: 0.3342026-09-25: 0.3342026-09-26: 0.3332026-09-27: 0.3332026-09-28: 0.333 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peterson, David · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peterson, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 29.8%4-Seam Fastball: 24.8%Slider: 21.9%Changeup: 13.1%Curveball: 10.4% SI30% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 30%FF 25%SL 22%CH 13%CU 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peterson, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.1 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.5 mphFF92 mphSlider: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.4 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 29.6% 460 98 qualified
FB 24.5% 380 98 qualified
SL 23.0% 358 106 qualified
CH 11.5% 178 105 limited sample
CB 11.5% 178 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.81
K% Δ-0.004

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.363
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.333

Peterson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.363, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.333 — a gap of 0.030, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 156 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching272026-09-25Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.7% K | 3.98 ERAProjection