Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Jake Bird

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 215 lb · Age 30

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024224.50350140.0311.70
2025425.53480055.1661.54
2026115.35440038.2411.42
5 Seasons12124.8523531271.02571.46
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal5 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace5.35
ERA rolling p504.60
Observed weight43%
ERA
2.85 3.68 4.60 5.53 6.36
FIP
3.44 3.69 3.97 4.25 4.50
K%
19.4% 21.6% 24.0% 26.5% 28.7%
BB%
6.4% 7.5% 8.9% 10.2% 11.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
42
ERA5.35
20
BB%7.7%
67 +27 vs proj
K%25.8%
75 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
44 -33 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.6%
31
Fastball velo94.3
47
Hard-hit allowed36.2%
68
Whiff%26.3%
78
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Curveball Stuff+102
42
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Sinker Stuff+101
41
Slider Stuff+111
97
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bird, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.318 2026-09-18: 0.3182026-09-19: 0.3182026-09-20: 0.3182026-09-21: 0.3182026-09-22: 0.3182026-09-23: 0.3182026-09-24: 0.3182026-09-25: 0.3182026-09-26: 0.3182026-09-27: 0.3182026-09-28: 0.3182026-09-29: 0.318 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bird, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bird, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 38.5%Sinker: 32.2%4-Seam Fastball: 16.8%Curveball: 11.7%Changeup: 0.8% ST38% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 38%SI 32%FF 17%CU 12%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bird, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 38% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mphSinker: 32% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 81.0 mphCU81 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 40.2% 154 111 limited sample
SI 29.2% 112 101 limited sample
FB 18.0% 69 100 limited sample
CB 12.0% 46 102 limited sample
CH 0.5% 2 114 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 3"
Weight215 lb
Debut2022-06-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.97
K% Δ+0.031

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.364
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.318

Bird’s wOBA-against sits at 0.364, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.318 — a gap of 0.047, 1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 41 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.7% K | 4.38 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-13 vs LAA3 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs ATH0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-05 vs MIA3 ER / 0 K0.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs MIA0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP