Mithrandir Metrics
Player Houston Astros Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Houston Astros

Bryan Abreu

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 230 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Houston Astros Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024333.10780178.11031.16
2025342.28700771.01051.15
2026643.73660962.2801.36
8 Seasons22162.82383025392.15281.20
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal4 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.20
ERA current pace3.73
ERA rolling p503.49
Observed weight54%
ERA
2.03 2.72 3.49 4.26 4.95
FIP
2.48 3.13 3.84 4.56 5.21
K%
27.0% 28.9% 31.0% 33.1% 35.1%
BB%
10.8% 12.1% 13.4% 14.8% 16.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
32
ERA3.73
61
BB%16.5%
2 -32 vs proj
K%29.5%
90
xwOBA allowed0.312
50 -36 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
72 +36 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
37
Whiff%30.8%
94
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+96
15
Mithrandir Stuff+98
21
Slider Stuff+102
50
Cutter Stuff+95
8
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Abreu, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-09-13: 0.3172026-09-14: 0.3172026-09-18: 0.3122026-09-19: 0.3122026-09-20: 0.3122026-09-21: 0.3142026-09-22: 0.3142026-09-23: 0.3142026-09-24: 0.3112026-09-25: 0.3112026-09-26: 0.3122026-09-27: 0.312 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Abreu, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abreu, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 45.0%4-Seam Fastball: 44.0%Cutter: 10.7%Changeup: 0.3% SL45% · 87 mphprimary pitch SL 45%FF 44%FC 11%CH 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abreu, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.0 mphFC93 mphChangeup: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.2% 362 96 qualified
SL 42.7% 321 102 qualified
FC 8.9% 67 95 limited sample
CH 0.1% 1 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 1"
Weight230 lb
Debut2019-07-31
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.51
K% Δ-0.015

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.345
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.312

Abreu’s wOBA-against sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.312 — a gap of 0.033, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 64 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202631.0% K | 3.22 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 vs STL3 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs COL0 ER / 2 K1.1 IP
2026-04-12 @ SEA0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ SEA1 ER / 1 K0.1 IP
2026-04-08 @ COL1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP