Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Freddy Peralta

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 198 lb · Age 30

Cards
33
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241193.6832320173.22001.21
20251762.7033330176.22041.08
202610114.4232320169.01561.33
9 Seasons80533.7124319411100.013091.16
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace4.42
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight75%
ERA
3.10 3.62 4.20 4.77 5.29
FIP
3.38 3.75 4.15 4.56 4.92
K%
20.9% 21.8% 22.8% 23.9% 24.8%
BB%
7.3% 7.9% 8.5% 9.1% 9.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.42
40
BB%8.6%
53
K%21.4%
44 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.302
65 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.8%
77 +44 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
50
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
59
Whiff%23.2%
54 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+106
80
Curveball Stuff+101
33
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Slider Stuff+93
7
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peralta, Freddy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.302 2026-09-18: 0.3032026-09-19: 0.3032026-09-20: 0.3032026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3022026-09-24: 0.3022026-09-25: 0.3022026-09-26: 0.3022026-09-27: 0.3022026-09-28: 0.3022026-09-29: 0.302 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peralta, Freddy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.0%Changeup: 23.4%Curveball: 12.9%Sweeper: 5.7%Slider: 4.0%Slow Curve: 0.9% FF53% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 53%CH 23%CU 13%ST 6%SL 4%CS 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 53% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.4 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 79.5 mphCU79 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.4 mphST82 mphSlider: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.1 mphSL83 mphSlow Curve: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 74.8 mphCS75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.7% 1014 103 qualified
CH 24.2% 457 106 qualified
CB 14.4% 272 101 qualified
SL 7.7% 145 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 0"
Weight198 lb
Debut2018-05-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.93
K% Δ-0.047

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.330
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.302

Peralta’s wOBA-against sits at 0.330, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.302 — a gap of 0.028, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 167 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching332026-09-25Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.1% K | 3.49 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 vs ATH1 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs AZ3 ER / 5 K4.2 IP
2026-04-01 @ STL1 ER / 7 K5.1 IP
2026-03-26 vs PIT4 ER / 7 K5.0 IP