Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 31 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 224 lb |
| Debut | 2017-08-11 |
Player profile / Atlanta Braves
Dominic Smith
DH · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 11", 224 lb · Age 31
Club Atlanta Braves
Position DH
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 307 | 33 | 64 | 6 | 1 | .233 | .313 | .378 | .691 |
| 2025 | 225 | 26 | 58 | 5 | 2 | .284 | .333 | .417 | .750 |
| 2026 | 300 | 40 | 68 | 9 | 0 | .253 | .311 | .383 | .694 |
| 10 Seasons | 2791 | 303 | 630 | 78 | 7 | .250 | .315 | .402 | .717 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.302 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.301 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.288
0.302
0.315
0.327
wOBA
0.297
0.314
0.331
0.349
0.365
ISO
0.113
0.128
0.146
0.164
0.179
K%
15.1%
16.5%
18.1%
19.6%
21.0%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
44
Exit velocity87.6
46
Hard-hit%33.2%
27
xBA0.292
21
xSLG0.460
36
xwOBA0.301
49
BB%7.9%
43
Bat speed66.7
18
K%15.2%
88
+28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · 1B
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.1 · 1B
35
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.5 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
19
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.254 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
148 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.037 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Smith’s wOBA sits at 0.331, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.301 — a gap of 0.031, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 315 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-04-20 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 2 | 2026-09-12 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.095 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.294 xwOBA | 9 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIA1 HR | 3 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HR, 3B, 3 RBI |
| 2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | RBI |
| 2026-04-17 @ PHI1 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | HR, RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 |
| 2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR | 4 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 2B, 4 RBI |