Mithrandir Metrics
Player Los Angeles Dodgers Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Los Angeles Dodgers

Eric Lauer

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 3", 209 lb · Age 31

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Los Angeles Dodgers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023466.56109046.2431.67
2025923.1828150104.21021.11
2026875.2322180108.1721.31
8 Seasons53464.281701450809.27411.33
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal6 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace5.23
ERA rolling p504.80
Observed weight66%
ERA
3.37 4.05 4.80 5.56 6.24
FIP
4.65 5.04 5.48 5.92 6.32
K%
15.1% 16.2% 17.4% 18.7% 19.8%
BB%
6.0% 6.6% 7.3% 8.0% 8.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
50
ERA5.23
22
BB%7.5%
71
K%15.4%
7 -42 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
21 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.0%
8 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo91.1
8
Hard-hit allowed35.9%
70
Whiff%15.4%
4 -18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+97
16
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+98
20
Changeup Stuff+97
21
Curveball Stuff+104
82
Slider Stuff+96
16
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lauer, Eric · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-09-13: 0.3422026-09-14: 0.3422026-09-18: 0.3422026-09-19: 0.3422026-09-20: 0.3422026-09-21: 0.3422026-09-22: 0.3422026-09-23: 0.3422026-09-24: 0.3422026-09-25: 0.3422026-09-26: 0.3422026-09-27: 0.342 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lauer, Eric · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lauer, Eric · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.8%Cutter: 22.9%Changeup: 14.8%Curveball: 12.3%Slider: 8.2% FF42% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 42%FC 23%CH 15%CU 12%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lauer, Eric · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.1 mphFF91 mphCutter: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.6 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 84.6 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphSlider: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 82.8 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.0% 477 99 qualified
FC 19.9% 216 97 qualified
CH 16.3% 177 97 limited sample
CB 11.0% 119 104 limited sample
SL 8.8% 95 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 3"
Weight209 lb
Debut2018-04-24
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.04
K% Δ-0.066

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.352
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.342

Lauer’s wOBA-against sits at 0.352, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.342 — a gap of 0.011, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 106 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-09-01Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.9% K | 4.19 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ AZ3 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs MIN7 ER / 3 K5.1 IP
2026-04-05 @ CWS2 ER / 0 K2.0 IP
2026-03-29 vs ATH2 ER / 9 K5.1 IP