Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago White Sox Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago White Sox

Anthony Kay

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 225 lb · Age 31

Cards
31
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago White Sox Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2022004.501002.031.50
2023006.14160014.2111.50
20261094.4433310158.01291.37
6 Seasons14114.8577380243.12171.45
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace4.53
ERA rolling p504.39
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.16 3.21 4.39 5.56 6.62
FIP
2.62 3.45 4.38 5.31 6.15
K%
16.8% 17.8% 18.9% 20.0% 21.0%
BB%
6.6% 7.3% 8.0% 8.7% 9.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
34
ERA4.53
37
BB%8.0%
63 +22 vs proj
K%18.4%
23 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
20
Barrel allowed8.7%
30 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed40.5%
34
Whiff%21.7%
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Changeup Stuff+100
36
Cutter Stuff+99
26
Fastball Stuff+105
68
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+104
63
Slider Stuff+99
26
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kay, Anthony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-09-14: 0.3412026-09-18: 0.3402026-09-19: 0.3402026-09-20: 0.3402026-09-21: 0.3402026-09-22: 0.3402026-09-23: 0.3422026-09-24: 0.3422026-09-25: 0.3422026-09-26: 0.3422026-09-27: 0.3422026-09-28: 0.342 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kay, Anthony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kay, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 23.2%4-Seam Fastball: 21.9%Sinker: 17.9%Cutter: 17.0%Changeup: 14.2%Slider: 5.8% ST23% · 83 mphprimary pitch ST 23%FF 22%SI 18%FC 17%CH 14%SL 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kay, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 23% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.7 mphST83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphSinker: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphCutter: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.1 mphCH86 mphSlider: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 27.3% 490 99 qualified
FB 23.0% 413 105 qualified
SI 18.0% 323 104 qualified
FC 16.9% 304 99 qualified
CH 14.9% 267 100 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 0"
Weight225 lb
Debut2019-09-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.57
K% Δ-0.023

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.382
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.342

Kay’s wOBA-against sits at 0.382, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.342 — a gap of 0.040, 1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 164 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching312026-09-27Sweeper played up through ST/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.6% K | 3.96 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ DET3 ER / 4 K5.1 IP
2026-04-09 @ KC0 ER / 6 K5.2 IP
2026-04-04 vs TOR2 ER / 0 K4.1 IP
2026-03-29 @ MIL2 ER / 5 K4.2 IP