Mithrandir Metrics
Player Boston Red Sox Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Boston Red Sox

Ranger Suarez

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 1", 217 lb · Age 31

Cards
25
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Boston Red Sox Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241283.4627270150.21451.20
20251283.2026260157.11511.22
2026853.2228280148.11401.19
9 Seasons61423.352151474910.18451.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal7 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace3.22
ERA rolling p503.40
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.45 2.90 3.40 3.90 4.35
FIP
2.86 3.14 3.46 3.77 4.06
K%
20.3% 21.2% 22.2% 23.2% 24.1%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 7.9% 8.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
66
ERA3.22
77
BB%7.4%
72
K%22.6%
54
xwOBA allowed0.294
74
Barrel allowed5.5%
81 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo90.8
7
Hard-hit allowed33.6%
85
Whiff%19.9%
26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+99
30
Curveball Stuff+100
15
Cutter Stuff+99
28
Fastball Stuff+99
25
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+93
6
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suarez, Ranger · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.294 2026-09-18: 0.2972026-09-19: 0.2982026-09-20: 0.2982026-09-21: 0.2982026-09-22: 0.2982026-09-23: 0.2982026-09-24: 0.2982026-09-25: 0.2982026-09-26: 0.2942026-09-27: 0.2942026-09-28: 0.2942026-09-29: 0.294 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suarez, Ranger · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 24.4%4-Seam Fastball: 22.5%Cutter: 18.9%Curveball: 16.6%Changeup: 12.6%Slider: 5.1% SI24% · 90 mphprimary pitch SI 24%FF 22%FC 19%CU 17%CH 13%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Ranger · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.5 mphFF91 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.8 mphFC88 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 75.6 mphCU76 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.0 mphCH81 mphSlider: 5% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 78.9 mphSL79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 26.5% 438 100 qualified
FB 21.1% 349 99 qualified
FC 18.0% 298 99 qualified
CB 16.5% 272 100 qualified
CH 13.2% 218 99 qualified
SL 4.6% 76 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 1"
Weight217 lb
Debut2018-07-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.63
K% Δ+0.019

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.311
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.294

Suarez’s wOBA-against sits at 0.311, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.294 — a gap of 0.018, 0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 150 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching252026-09-24Four-Seam Fastball played up through SI/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.7% K | 3.85 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 vs DET0 ER / 4 K8.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ STL0 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs SD4 ER / 2 K4.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ HOU4 ER / 3 K4.1 IP