Mithrandir Metrics
Player Athletics Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Athletics

Luis Severino

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 218 lb · Age 32

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Athletics Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241173.9131310182.01611.24
20258114.5429290162.21241.30
2026264.161212062.2651.47
11 Seasons75613.9321319701134.211381.23
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal6 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason4.30
ERA current pace4.17
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.06 3.61 4.23 4.85 5.40
FIP
3.66 3.95 4.28 4.61 4.90
K%
19.6% 21.0% 22.5% 24.0% 25.3%
BB%
7.9% 8.7% 9.5% 10.4% 11.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
29
ERA4.17
47
BB%11.3%
23 -45 vs proj
K%24.7%
69 +38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
43 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.7%
30 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo96.6
82
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
52
Whiff%19.8%
25
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Cutter Stuff+102
57
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Sinker Stuff+104
63
Slider Stuff+106
81
Changeup Stuff+102
54
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Severino, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.318 2026-09-14: 0.3182026-09-18: 0.3182026-09-19: 0.3182026-09-20: 0.3182026-09-21: 0.3182026-09-22: 0.3182026-09-23: 0.3182026-09-24: 0.3182026-09-25: 0.3182026-09-26: 0.3182026-09-27: 0.3182026-09-28: 0.318 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Severino, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Severino, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 23.8%Sinker: 23.3%4-Seam Fastball: 21.5%Cutter: 20.9%Changeup: 6.4%Slider: 4.2% ST24% · 85 mphprimary pitch ST 24%SI 23%FF 22%FC 21%CH 6%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Severino, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sweeper: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mphSinker: 23% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphCutter: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.1 mphFC94 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphSlider: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.5% 303 106 qualified
SI 24.0% 255 104 qualified
FB 21.4% 227 106 qualified
FC 20.8% 221 102 qualified
CH 5.4% 57 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 2"
Weight218 lb
Debut2015-08-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.32
K% Δ+0.055

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.372
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.318

Severino’s wOBA-against sits at 0.372, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.318 — a gap of 0.055, 1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 66 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching122026-05-21Sweeper played up through ST/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.3% K | 4.49 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 vs TEX4 ER / 7 K6.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ NYY2 ER / 7 K5.0 IP
2026-04-01 @ ATL4 ER / 7 K3.1 IP
2026-03-27 @ TOR2 ER / 3 K5.0 IP