Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago White Sox Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago White Sox

Luis Castillo

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 200 lb · Age 33

Cards
27
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago White Sox Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202411123.6430300175.11751.17
20251183.5432320180.21621.18
20264115.8529230130.21121.49
10 Seasons88953.7527226601541.116051.20
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.99
ERA current pace5.86
ERA rolling p505.34
Observed weight72%
ERA
4.20 4.74 5.34 5.95 6.49
FIP
4.06 4.39 4.76 5.13 5.46
K%
17.5% 18.5% 19.6% 20.7% 21.6%
BB%
5.9% 6.4% 7.0% 7.6% 8.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
23
ERA5.86
13
BB%7.3%
73
K%18.7%
27
xwOBA allowed0.341
21
Barrel allowed9.7%
17 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed43.0%
19
Whiff%21.4%
40
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Changeup Stuff+106
79
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Sinker Stuff+108
89
Slider Stuff+103
61
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Castillo, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.341 2026-09-14: 0.3412026-09-18: 0.3412026-09-19: 0.3412026-09-20: 0.3412026-09-21: 0.3402026-09-22: 0.3402026-09-23: 0.3412026-09-24: 0.3412026-09-25: 0.3412026-09-26: 0.3412026-09-27: 0.3412026-09-28: 0.341 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Castillo, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.0%Slider: 24.4%Sinker: 18.7%Changeup: 14.6%Cutter: 0.2%Pitch Out: 0.0% FF42% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 42%SL 24%SI 19%CH 15%FC 0%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mphSinker: 19% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.4 mphCH87 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 89.4 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.6% 671 102 qualified
SL 24.2% 382 103 qualified
SI 18.4% 290 108 qualified
CH 14.7% 232 106 qualified
FC 0.1% 1 111 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 2"
Weight200 lb
Debut2017-06-23
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.79
K% Δ-0.020

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.399
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.341

Castillo’s wOBA-against sits at 0.399, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.341 — a gap of 0.057, 2.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 138 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching272026-09-03Sinker played up through SI/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.7% K | 4.07 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 vs HOU7 ER / 3 K3.1 IP
2026-04-05 @ LAA3 ER / 4 K3.2 IP
2026-03-30 vs NYY0 ER / 7 K6.0 IP