Mithrandir Metrics
Player Philadelphia Phillies Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies

José Alvarado

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 2", 245 lb · Age 31

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Philadelphia Phillies Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024254.096601361.2631.25
2025423.81280726.0321.31
2026545.86680158.1701.65
10 Seasons24313.80476153426.25391.36
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace5.43
ERA rolling p504.63
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.01 3.78 4.63 5.48 6.25
FIP
2.86 3.31 3.80 4.30 4.75
K%
21.6% 23.4% 25.5% 27.5% 29.3%
BB%
8.0% 9.0% 10.2% 11.4% 12.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.65
10
ERA5.43
18
BB%11.1%
24 -18 vs proj
K%25.1%
71
xwOBA allowed0.312
51
Barrel allowed4.1%
93 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.7%
84
Whiff%24.4%
64
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Cutter Stuff+89
1
Mithrandir Stuff+101
35
Sinker Stuff+104
60
Curveball Stuff+103
67
Fastball Stuff+90
3
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarado, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-09-14: 0.3052026-09-18: 0.3072026-09-19: 0.3072026-09-20: 0.3072026-09-21: 0.3062026-09-22: 0.3062026-09-23: 0.3062026-09-24: 0.3062026-09-25: 0.3062026-09-26: 0.3082026-09-27: 0.3122026-09-28: 0.312 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarado, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 63.2%Cutter: 32.5%Curveball: 2.5%4-Seam Fastball: 1.9% SI63% · 98 mphprimary pitch SI 63%FC 32%CU 2%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 63% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.9 mphSI98 mphCutter: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.5 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.7 mphCU85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 63.2% 449 104 qualified
FC 33.6% 239 89 qualified
CB 1.8% 13 103 limited sample
FB 1.4% 10 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 2"
Weight245 lb
Debut2017-05-03
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+2.00
K% Δ-0.002

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.386
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.312

Alvarado’s wOBA-against sits at 0.386, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.312 — a gap of 0.074, 2.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 61 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.3% K | 3.43 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs CIN2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs CHC0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs AZ2 ER / 0 K0.1 IP
2026-04-11 vs AZ0 ER / 0 K0.1 IP
2026-04-08 @ SF1 ER / 2 K0.2 IP