Mithrandir Metrics
Player ACL Padres Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / ACL Padres

Kyle Hart

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 5", 200 lb · Age 33

Cards
5
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club ACL Padres Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20200115.5543011.0133.09
2025335.86206043.0371.19
2026134.92464064.0591.20
3 Seasons476.2570130118.01091.37
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal4 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.72
ERA current pace4.92
ERA rolling p504.83
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.52 4.14 4.83 5.52 6.13
FIP
3.12 3.48 3.89 4.29 4.66
K%
19.5% 20.8% 22.3% 23.8% 25.1%
BB%
6.7% 7.5% 8.4% 9.4% 10.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
62
ERA4.92
28
BB%9.3%
46 -28 vs proj
K%21.9%
47
xwOBA allowed0.295
74 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.6%
32
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed31.2%
93
Whiff%21.3%
39
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Sinker Stuff+93
8
Slider Stuff+109
93
Fastball Stuff+108
91
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hart, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.295 2026-09-13: 0.2842026-09-14: 0.2822026-09-18: 0.2892026-09-19: 0.2892026-09-20: 0.2892026-09-21: 0.2902026-09-22: 0.2902026-09-23: 0.2902026-09-24: 0.2902026-09-25: 0.2902026-09-26: 0.2952026-09-27: 0.295 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hart, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hart, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 31.9%Sweeper: 25.2%Split-Finger: 20.0%Slider: 14.1%4-Seam Fastball: 8.7% SI32% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 32%ST 25%FS 20%SL 14%FF 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hart, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.2 mphST83 mphSplit-Finger: 20% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.4 mphFS85 mphSlider: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.2 mphSL89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 48.9% 285 109 qualified
SI 41.0% 239 93 qualified
FB 10.1% 59 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 5"
Weight200 lb
Debut2020-08-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.39
K% Δ+0.006

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.319
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.295

Hart’s wOBA-against sits at 0.319, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.295 — a gap of 0.025, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 64 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching52026-08-02Sinker played up through SI/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.3% K | 4.53 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ CLE1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-17 @ LAA0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs COL2 ER / 1 K2.1 IP
2026-04-08 @ PIT0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ BOS0 ER / 0 K2.1 IP