Mithrandir Metrics
Player SD Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / SD

Nick Pivetta

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 210 lb · Age 33

Cards
14
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club SD Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20246124.1427260145.21721.13
20251352.8731310181.21900.99
2026322.8688034.2421.01
10 Seasons72784.4326221731245.213711.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
86
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal5 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.60
ERA current pace2.86
ERA rolling p503.30
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.28 2.77 3.30 3.84 4.33
FIP
2.61 3.03 3.50 3.97 4.39
K%
23.1% 24.9% 26.8% 28.8% 30.6%
BB%
4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8% 7.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
80
ERA2.86
85
BB%5.6%
92 +15 vs proj
K%28.0%
86
xwOBA allowed0.277
85 +34 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.4%
5 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
38
Whiff%18.6%
16 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Fastball Stuff+110
96
Curveball Stuff+105
90
Cutter Stuff+101
44
Mithrandir Stuff+109
97
Slider Stuff+103
63
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pivetta, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.277 2026-09-14: 0.2632026-09-18: 0.2632026-09-19: 0.2652026-09-20: 0.2652026-09-21: 0.2652026-09-22: 0.2652026-09-23: 0.2652026-09-24: 0.2652026-09-25: 0.2652026-09-26: 0.2772026-09-27: 0.2772026-09-28: 0.277 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pivetta, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pivetta, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.7%Curveball: 21.7%Cutter: 13.4%Sweeper: 12.0%Sinker: 1.2%Slider: 0.9% FF51% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 51%CU 22%FC 13%ST 12%SI 1%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pivetta, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mphCutter: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.2 mphFC91 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSinker: 1% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphSlider: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.5 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.5% 267 110 qualified
CB 21.2% 104 105 limited sample
FC 12.2% 60 101 limited sample
SL 11.0% 54 103 limited sample
SI 1.0% 5 116 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.82
K% Δ+0.028

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.326
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.277

Pivetta’s wOBA-against sits at 0.326, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.277 — a gap of 0.050, 1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 38 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching142026-09-24Four-Seam Fastball played up through CU/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.2% K | 3.68 ERAProjection