Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Diego Padres Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Diego Padres

Jason Adam

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 229 lb · Age 35

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club San Diego Padres Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024721.95740473.2810.86
2025841.93650065.1701.15
2026222.62380234.1221.17
9 Seasons29172.68379026369.14121.04
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal4 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.38
ERA current pace2.62
ERA rolling p503.09
Observed weight38%
ERA
1.68 2.35 3.09 3.83 4.50
FIP
2.58 3.15 3.77 4.40 4.97
K%
16.6% 19.1% 21.8% 24.5% 27.0%
BB%
5.7% 6.9% 8.2% 9.5% 10.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
85
ERA2.62
90
BB%6.8%
82 +33 vs proj
K%16.2%
12 -55 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.300
68
Barrel allowed7.2%
54
Fastball velo93.4
33
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
61
Whiff%26.8%
81
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Fastball Stuff+98
19
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Slider Stuff+104
67
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Adam, Jason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.300 2026-09-13: 0.2882026-09-14: 0.2882026-09-18: 0.2882026-09-19: 0.2882026-09-20: 0.2882026-09-21: 0.2882026-09-22: 0.2882026-09-23: 0.2882026-09-24: 0.2882026-09-25: 0.2882026-09-26: 0.3002026-09-27: 0.300 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Adam, Jason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Adam, Jason · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 37.7%Changeup: 32.3%4-Seam Fastball: 23.3%Sweeper: 6.6% SL38% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 38%CH 32%FF 23%ST 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Adam, Jason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.5 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.1 mphCH88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 78.1 mphST78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 44.0% 179 104 limited sample
CH 32.7% 133 104 limited sample
FB 23.3% 95 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 3"
Weight229 lb
Debut2018-05-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.59
K% Δ-0.083

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.312
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.300

Adam’s wOBA-against sits at 0.312, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.300 — a gap of 0.012, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 36 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.5% K | 3.21 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 vs SEA0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs COL0 ER / 0 K0.1 IP