Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Pierce Johnson

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 202 lb · Age 35

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024663.67580256.1671.30
2025333.05650159.0591.20
2026214.62560148.2421.36
9 Seasons23253.90386217364.14211.33
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal3 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace4.62
ERA rolling p504.21
Observed weight48%
ERA
2.76 3.45 4.21 4.97 5.66
FIP
3.64 3.99 4.37 4.75 5.10
K%
18.3% 20.1% 22.1% 24.2% 26.0%
BB%
7.3% 8.3% 9.5% 10.7% 11.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA4.62
34
BB%9.3%
46
K%19.1%
30 -37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.338
24 -15 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.9%
4 -31 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
72
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
41
Whiff%21.4%
40 -20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-28
Curveball Stuff+107
98
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Johnson, Pierce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.338 2026-09-14: 0.3472026-09-18: 0.3422026-09-19: 0.3422026-09-20: 0.3422026-09-21: 0.3402026-09-22: 0.3402026-09-23: 0.3402026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.3382026-09-27: 0.3382026-09-28: 0.338 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Johnson, Pierce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Pierce · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 62.6%4-Seam Fastball: 36.5%Cutter: 0.9% CU63% · 87 mphprimary pitch CU 63%FF 36%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Pierce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Curveball: 63% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.5 mphCU87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphCutter: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.0 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 64.6% 402 107 qualified
FB 35.2% 219 99 qualified
FC 0.2% 1 115 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 2"
Weight202 lb
Debut2017-05-19
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.63
K% Δ-0.053

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.356
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.338

Johnson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.356, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.338 — a gap of 0.019, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 51 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.4% K | 3.99 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs MIA0 ER / 0 K0.1 IP
2026-04-20 @ TB0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs SF0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs LAA0 ER / 3 K1.1 IP
2026-04-08 @ MIA0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP