Mithrandir Metrics
Player Buffalo Bisons Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Buffalo Bisons

Michael Lorenzen

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 210 lb · Age 34

Cards
24
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Buffalo Bisons Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024763.3126240130.1971.24
20257114.6427260141.21271.33
20263137.2132251127.1901.88
12 Seasons57684.44427144161123.19161.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
13
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
15
Arsenal7 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.88
1
ERA7.21
2
BB%8.9%
50
K%14.5%
5
xwOBA allowed0.372
5
Barrel allowed9.3%
21
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed46.5%
5
Whiff%17.2%
9
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+95
13
Fastball Stuff+103
53
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+103
54
Slider Stuff+103
62
Curveball Stuff+102
48
Cutter Stuff+109
98
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lorenzen, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.372 2026-09-13: 0.3712026-09-14: 0.3712026-09-18: 0.3722026-09-19: 0.3722026-09-20: 0.3722026-09-21: 0.3722026-09-22: 0.3722026-09-23: 0.3722026-09-24: 0.3722026-09-25: 0.3722026-09-26: 0.3722026-09-27: 0.372 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lorenzen, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 20.4%Changeup: 20.1%4-Seam Fastball: 18.6%Cutter: 14.3%Curveball: 10.7%Sweeper: 8.2% SI20% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 20%CH 20%FF 19%FC 14%CU 11%ST 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.6 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.1 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 82.7 mphCU83 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.7 mphST83 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 66″ drop, 68.4 mphUN68 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 20.0% 263 103 qualified
CH 20.0% 263 95 qualified
SL 17.1% 225 103 qualified
SI 16.6% 218 103 qualified
FC 13.6% 178 109 limited sample
CB 12.6% 165 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age34
Height6' 1"
Weight210 lb
Debut2015-04-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.430
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.372

Lorenzen’s wOBA-against sits at 0.430, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.372 — a gap of 0.058, 2.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 132 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching242026-08-15Changeup played up through CH/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-08-15 @ SF6 ER / 1 K3.2 IP
2026-04-14 @ HOU2 ER / 3 K2.2 IP
2026-04-11 @ SD0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs HOU1 ER / 4 K5.2 IP
2026-04-03 vs PHI9 ER / 2 K3.0 IP