Mithrandir Metrics
Player Atlanta Braves Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Atlanta Braves

Chris Sale

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 6", 180 lb · Age 37

Cards
26
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Atlanta Braves Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241832.3829290177.22251.01
2025752.5821200125.21651.07
20261492.1627270162.22000.98
16 Seasons159972.95420339122246.227791.04
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
94
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
85
Arsenal5 metrics
84
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace2.16
ERA rolling p502.47
Observed weight74%
ERA
1.48 1.95 2.47 2.98 3.45
FIP
2.01 2.22 2.45 2.68 2.89
K%
27.4% 28.4% 29.6% 30.7% 31.8%
BB%
4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 5.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.97
95
ERA2.16
94
BB%4.6%
98
K%29.8%
92
xwOBA allowed0.267
90
Barrel allowed6.4%
68 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
72
Whiff%27.7%
84
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-29
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Slider Stuff+102
52
Changeup Stuff+109
95
Sinker Stuff+109
94
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sale, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.267 2026-09-18: 0.2712026-09-19: 0.2712026-09-20: 0.2712026-09-21: 0.2712026-09-22: 0.2712026-09-23: 0.2712026-09-24: 0.2672026-09-25: 0.2672026-09-26: 0.2672026-09-27: 0.2672026-09-28: 0.2672026-09-29: 0.267 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sale, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sale, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.5%Slider: 39.6%Changeup: 10.6%Sinker: 8.3% FF41% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 41%SL 40%CH 11%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sale, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSlider: 40% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 79.6 mphSL80 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.3 mphCH88 mphSinker: 8% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 95.5 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 41.2% 766 102 qualified
FB 40.3% 750 108 qualified
CH 10.1% 188 109 limited sample
SI 8.3% 155 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age37
Height6' 6"
Weight180 lb
Debut2010-08-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.09
K% Δ+0.024

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.280
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.267

Sale’s wOBA-against sits at 0.280, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.267 — a gap of 0.013, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 173 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching262026-09-23Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202627.4% K | 3.25 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ MIA1 ER / 8 K7.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs CLE1 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ LAA6 ER / 7 K4.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs ATH1 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-03-27 vs KC0 ER / 6 K6.0 IP