Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Michael Busch

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs BOSTanner Houck
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 14 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.071, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 15.3
V 14.8
Model 15.5% Market 18.7% Gap -3.2pp
BetMGM 435 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.5% Market 76.5% Gap +16.1pp
BetMGM -325 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
65 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
55
Hard-hit%40.1%
58 -21 vs proj
xBA0.321
54
xSLG0.555
67
xwOBA0.332
80
BB%12.8%
91
Bat speed66.2
13
K%23.1%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs3.2 · 1B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.1 · 1B
9
Sprint Speed26.0 · 1B
16
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.018
Opposing pitcherTanner Houck
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-28
Palantir 21951 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error falling
Fangorn 21951 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16263 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1984 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1480 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Palantir 10586 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1101 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.051 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)