Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Nico Hoerner

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs BOSTanner Houck
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.071, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 4.9
F 7.3
V 11.0
Model 6.1% Market 7.7% Gap -1.9pp
FanDuel 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.4% Market 82.3% Gap +16.7pp
BetMGM -465 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.4%
6
Exit velocity86.0
29
Hard-hit%29.4%
15
xBA0.329
63
xSLG0.415
18
xwOBA0.323
71
BB%6.4%
27
Bat speed66.8
20
K%8.5%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
48
Arm Strength84.5 · 2B
25
Outs Above Avg9.0 · 2B
94
Range Runs8.0 · 2B
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.6 · 2B
97
SB Success Rate91.7% · 2B
85
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
75

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherTanner Houck
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-28
Palantir 21951 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error falling
Fangorn 21951 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16263 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1984 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1480 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Palantir 10586 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1101 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.051 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)