Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Victor Caratini

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 8 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.2% Market 64.9% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -185 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
44
Exit velocity89.1
65
Hard-hit%37.9%
48
xBA0.296
25
xSLG0.471
40
xwOBA0.306
53
BB%8.8%
54 +21 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
44
K%21.5%
59
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.1 · C
85
Catcher Throwing-4.2 · C
2
Framing Runs2.8 · C
78
Outs Above Avg1.0 · C
95
Pop Time2.0 · C
4
Range Runs0.4 · C
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.4 · C
2

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.352
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherMacKenzie Gore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)