Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-09-27 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-27

Aaron Judge

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IL10 · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs BALShane Baz
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 14.5
V 22.5
Model 17.9% Market 29.3% Gap +9.2pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.8% Market 83.7% Gap +16.6pp
BetMGM -515 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.2%
100
Exit velocity94.3
99
Hard-hit%58.3%
100
xBA0.402
99
xSLG0.887
100
xwOBA0.396
99
BB%15.0%
98
Bat speed74.2
96
K%30.6%
15 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · RF
70
Arm Strength95.4 · RF
63
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
13
Range Runs-1.7 · RF
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate57.1% · RF
9
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
30

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.378 to 0.483
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)