{
  "date": "2026-10-04",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-04T08:02:05.164501",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 18,
    "odds_matched_count": 7,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 3,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-04",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 849823,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 410,
      "over_odds": 410,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.194,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1765,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.89,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-04",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 849823,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1724,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1892,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1725,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.72,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-04",
      "player_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_name": "William Contreras",
      "hitter_id": 661388,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 849825,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 670,
      "over_odds": 670,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1554,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1689,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1555,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 30.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 410,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.89
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1724,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.72
      },
      {
        "player_name": "William Contreras",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 670,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1554,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 30.62
      }
    ]
  }
}