{
  "date": "2026-09-27",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-27T08:03:34.631879",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 144,
    "odds_matched_count": 78,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 21,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822761,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1854,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2051,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1855,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823246,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.202,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.183,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.87,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823650,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2218,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.199,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 823246,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2065,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1867,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.18,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_id": 682829,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822761,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2228,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1998,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.91,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 823490,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1796,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.198,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1797,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.28,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_name": "Jake Burger",
      "hitter_id": 669394,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823650,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1811,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1658,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.68,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Nick Castellanos",
      "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos",
      "hitter_id": 592206,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 823246,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 575,
      "over_odds": 575,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1915,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2126,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1916,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.45,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 823490,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1491,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1615,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1493,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 36.73,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-27",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823084,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1516,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1644,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1517,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 36.48,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1854,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.62
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.87
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.18
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1997,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.91
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1796,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.28
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jake Burger",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 41.68
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Nick Castellanos",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 575,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1915,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.45
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1491,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 36.73
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1516,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 36.48
      }
    ]
  }
}