{
  "date": "2026-07-05",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-05T08:04:44.479517",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 103,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 32,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824333,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2766,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2417,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_name": "Corey Seager",
      "hitter_id": 608369,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 822879,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2676,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2349,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824902,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2322,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2642,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2323,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822879,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2454,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2177,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
      "hitter_id": 553993,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 824497,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2225,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1996,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.85,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers",
      "hitter_id": 669127,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 824980,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 390,
      "over_odds": 390,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1956,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2176,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1957,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.68,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823931,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2153,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1938,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.11,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "PHI",
      "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
      "game_id": 824091,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2306,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.206,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823931,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1908,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2117,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1909,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.24,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-05",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823525,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 360,
      "over_odds": 360,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1869,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2069,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.187,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.07,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corey Seager",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2322,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2176,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.85
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Shea Langeliers",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 390,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1956,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.68
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.11
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "PHI",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1908,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.24
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 360,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1869,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.07
      }
    ]
  }
}