{
  "date": "2026-07-02",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-02T08:02:37.093134",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 108,
    "odds_matched_count": 60,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 15,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824416,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2275,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2581,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2276,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "STL",
      "game_id": 824906,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1985,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2213,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1986,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.55,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823935,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2144,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1931,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.3,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_id": 682829,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823765,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2444,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2802,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2445,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl",
      "hitter_id": 670770,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823765,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 655,
      "over_odds": 655,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2676,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2349,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_id": 694671,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 822884,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 545,
      "over_odds": 545,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2078,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2329,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2079,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "JJ Bleday",
      "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday",
      "hitter_id": 668709,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 823765,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 650,
      "over_odds": 650,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2244,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2011,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823119,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 490,
      "over_odds": 490,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.177,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1948,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1772,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.9,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
      "hitter_id": 607043,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 822884,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 545,
      "over_odds": 545,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1869,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2069,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.187,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.07,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "player_name": "Colt Keith",
      "hitter_name": "Colt Keith",
      "hitter_id": 690993,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822884,
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 820,
      "over_odds": 820,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1802,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1987,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1803,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.06,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2275,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "STL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1985,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.55
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.3
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2444,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "TJ Friedl",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 655,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2348,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 545,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2078,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "JJ Bleday",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 650,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 490,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.177,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 41.9
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 545,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1869,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.07
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Colt Keith",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 6,
        "hr_odds": 820,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1802,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.06
      }
    ]
  }
}