{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-15", "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-15T08:04:21.813977", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 18, "skipped_start_count": 11, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 823980, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.51, "skill_score": 58.8, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8445, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7293, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5961, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4611, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3384, "prob_4_plus": 0.8445, "prob_5_plus": 0.7293, "prob_6_plus": 0.5961, "prob_7_plus": 0.4611, "prob_8_plus": 0.3384, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.011, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 91.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 88.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.9, "expected_contact_quality": 67.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "matchup_score": 85.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.3, "expected_contact_quality": 70.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 824143, "pitcher_id": 686613, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8234, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6994, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5602, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4237, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3034, "prob_4_plus": 0.8234, "prob_5_plus": 0.6994, "prob_6_plus": 0.5602, "prob_7_plus": 0.4237, "prob_8_plus": 0.3034, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.6, "expected_contact_quality": 62.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "matchup_score": 74.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.5, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 74.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 823333, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 56.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8007, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.668, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5238, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3869, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.27, "prob_4_plus": 0.8007, "prob_5_plus": 0.668, "prob_6_plus": 0.5238, "prob_7_plus": 0.3869, "prob_8_plus": 0.27, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 86.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 86.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.5, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 81.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.7, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 824466, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 54.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7989, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6656, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5211, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3841, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2676, "prob_4_plus": 0.7989, "prob_5_plus": 0.6656, "prob_6_plus": 0.5211, "prob_7_plus": 0.3841, "prob_8_plus": 0.2676, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.063, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 92.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.5, "expected_contact_quality": 69.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 85.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 75.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt McLain", "matchup_score": 85.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.8, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 822683, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 45.5, "opportunity_score": 66.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 22.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7943, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6594, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5141, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3773, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2615, "prob_4_plus": 0.7943, "prob_5_plus": 0.6594, "prob_6_plus": 0.5141, "prob_7_plus": 0.3773, "prob_8_plus": 0.2615, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Robert Hassell III", "matchup_score": 82.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 80.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.2, "expected_contact_quality": 92.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 824627, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 54.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 33.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7878, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6507, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5043, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3676, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.253, "prob_4_plus": 0.7878, "prob_5_plus": 0.6507, "prob_6_plus": 0.5043, "prob_7_plus": 0.3676, "prob_8_plus": 0.253, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 71.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 58.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.5, "expected_contact_quality": 61.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 56.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.5, "expected_contact_quality": 111.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 823654, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 23.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 86.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7599, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6142, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4641, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.329, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2198, "prob_4_plus": 0.7599, "prob_5_plus": 0.6142, "prob_6_plus": 0.4641, "prob_7_plus": 0.329, "prob_8_plus": 0.2198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 92.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.4, "expected_contact_quality": 76.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 67.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 823574, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7358, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5835, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4315, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2987, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1946, "prob_4_plus": 0.7358, "prob_5_plus": 0.5835, "prob_6_plus": 0.4315, "prob_7_plus": 0.2987, "prob_8_plus": 0.1946, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 74.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.9, "expected_contact_quality": 101.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 82.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 63.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 823574, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 57.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.2, "expected_contact_quality": 118.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.2, "expected_contact_quality": 95.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.8, "expected_contact_quality": 113.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 823654, "pitcher_id": 641927, "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6703, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5049, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3522, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2289, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1395, "prob_4_plus": 0.6703, "prob_5_plus": 0.5049, "prob_6_plus": 0.3522, "prob_7_plus": 0.2289, "prob_8_plus": 0.1395, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "temperature_f": 57.6, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 71.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 58.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.5, "expected_contact_quality": 111.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 825030, "pitcher_id": 647336, "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 42.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6388, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4693, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3183, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2007, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1186, "prob_4_plus": 0.6388, "prob_5_plus": 0.4693, "prob_6_plus": 0.3183, "prob_7_plus": 0.2007, "prob_8_plus": 0.1186, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 60.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.3, "expected_contact_quality": 68.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 59.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 43.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.5, "expected_contact_quality": 121.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 824143, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 75.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 13.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6344, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4643, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3137, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.197, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1158, "prob_4_plus": 0.6344, "prob_5_plus": 0.4643, "prob_6_plus": 0.3137, "prob_7_plus": 0.197, "prob_8_plus": 0.1158, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 51.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 42.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 824384, "pitcher_id": 663436, "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.92, "skill_score": 7.2, "opportunity_score": 14.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.531, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3564, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2189, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1243, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0658, "prob_4_plus": 0.531, "prob_5_plus": 0.3564, "prob_6_plus": 0.2189, "prob_7_plus": 0.1243, "prob_8_plus": 0.0658, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.999, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 52.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.6, "expected_contact_quality": 105.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 96.9, "expected_contact_quality": 80.7 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 42.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 824307, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.522, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "prob_4_plus": 0.522, "prob_5_plus": 0.3476, "prob_6_plus": 0.2117, "prob_7_plus": 0.1191, "prob_8_plus": 0.0625, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.137, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 72.4, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Miguel Andujar", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 51.2, "expected_contact_quality": 77.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 823007, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4719, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3002, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.174, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.093, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0462, "prob_4_plus": 0.4719, "prob_5_plus": 0.3002, "prob_6_plus": 0.174, "prob_7_plus": 0.093, "prob_8_plus": 0.0462, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 55.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 44.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.3, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 43.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.4, "expected_contact_quality": 80.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 824307, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.45, "skill_score": 16.1, "opportunity_score": 20.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 91.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4429, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.274, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1542, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0799, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0385, "prob_4_plus": 0.4429, "prob_5_plus": 0.274, "prob_6_plus": 0.1542, "prob_7_plus": 0.0799, "prob_8_plus": 0.0385, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.137, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 53.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 48.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.8, "expected_contact_quality": 66.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 824627, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.3, "skill_score": 6.7, "opportunity_score": 36.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4132, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2481, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1353, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0678, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0316, "prob_4_plus": 0.4132, "prob_5_plus": 0.2481, "prob_6_plus": 0.1353, "prob_7_plus": 0.0678, "prob_8_plus": 0.0316, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.013, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 33.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 76.3, "expected_contact_quality": 64.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 31.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 43.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 28.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 138.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "game_pk": 825030, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.06, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3645, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2078, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1072, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0507, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0223, "prob_4_plus": 0.3645, "prob_5_plus": 0.2078, "prob_6_plus": 0.1072, "prob_7_plus": 0.0507, "prob_8_plus": 0.0223, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 44.1, "expected_contact_quality": 67.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 29.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 58.8, "expected_contact_quality": 91.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 28.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 63.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T12:04:21.813665+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 678022, "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669199, "pitcher_name": "Lake Bachar", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800600, "pitcher_name": "Jackson Kent", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680755, "pitcher_name": "Braydon Fisher", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 623454, "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 694918, "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663776, "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696270, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }