{ "date": "2026-10-05", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-10-05T08:03:56.813012", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-10-05", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 27 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 42, "matched_count": 42, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 42, "matched_rows": 42, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 3, "under_recommendation_count": 7, "strong_count": 1, "play_count": 2, "lean_count": 7, "no_play_count": 32, "average_edge_over": -0.024, "average_edge_under": -0.0137, "value_play_count": 0 }, "edge_count": 42, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2144, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.113103, "model_over_probability": 0.193, "model_under_probability": 0.807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7066, "edge_over": -0.11, "edge_under": 0.0773, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0773, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.193, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1771, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.2256, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2099, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1763, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1816, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1872, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1628, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1214, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.11, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1259, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1309, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0774, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1402, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1763, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2934, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15716910137915555, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1816, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8428308986208445, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.13623089862084445, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2144, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2144, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1321514925023075, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2256, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2256, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7744, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0774, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06843089862084445, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1816, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1214, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1309, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": -295, "expected_home_runs": 0.2144, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.113103, "model_over_probability": 0.193, "model_under_probability": 0.807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2825, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7175, "edge_over": -0.1011, "edge_under": 0.0602, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0602, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.193, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1771, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.2256, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2099, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1763, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1816, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1872, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1628, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1125, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1011, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.117, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.122, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0685, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.122, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1313, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1763, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2825, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15716910137915555, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1816, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8428308986208445, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.12533089862084443, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2144, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2144, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.12125149250230749, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2256, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2256, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7744, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0685, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06843089862084445, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1816, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1125, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.122, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 325, "under_odds": -400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1623, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1498, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.083741, "model_over_probability": 0.1498, "model_under_probability": 0.8502, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2353, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7727, "edge_over": -0.0855, "edge_under": 0.0502, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0502, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.875, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1498, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1117, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1324, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1374, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1127, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1257, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1026, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1046, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1096, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0855, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1236, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1319, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1327, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1319, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1307, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.333, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1127, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2273, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.55, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.55, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10829335511029294, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1257, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8917066448897071, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.11900664488970707, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1623, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1623, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12045710981827518, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8795428901817248, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.10684289018172483, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1324, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1324, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8676, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1029, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.024106644889707055, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1257, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1096, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1034, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1319, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -435, "expected_home_runs": 0.1576, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1458, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.081123, "model_over_probability": 0.1458, "model_under_probability": 0.8542, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8131, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7854, "edge_over": -0.0764, "edge_under": 0.0411, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0411, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8474, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1458, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1539, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.092, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1042, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.155, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1561, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1787, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1559, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0661, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0764, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0683, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0649, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1302, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0435, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0649, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0663, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.249, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.155, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2146, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.62, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.62, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13506232849080416, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1561, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8649376715091959, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07953767150919586, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1576, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1576, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1531497750593234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8468502249406766, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06145022494067662, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.092, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.092, "valinor_prob_under": 0.908, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1302, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0611497750593234, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1561, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0661, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0649, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.1623, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1498, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.083741, "model_over_probability": 0.1498, "model_under_probability": 0.8502, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2208, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7792, "edge_over": -0.0801, "edge_under": 0.0389, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0389, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.875, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1498, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1117, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1324, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1374, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1127, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1257, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1026, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1046, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1042, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0801, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1182, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1265, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0975, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1265, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1253, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.333, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1127, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2208, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.55, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.55, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10829335511029294, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1257, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8917066448897071, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.11250664488970706, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1623, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1623, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12045710981827518, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8795428901817248, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.10034289018172482, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1324, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1324, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8676, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0975, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.024106644889707055, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1257, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1042, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1034, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1265, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.1576, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1458, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.081123, "model_over_probability": 0.1458, "model_under_probability": 0.8542, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.791, "edge_over": -0.0716, "edge_under": 0.0312, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0312, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8474, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1458, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1539, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.092, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1042, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.155, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1561, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1787, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1559, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0613, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0716, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0635, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0601, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1254, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0387, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0601, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0615, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.249, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.155, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.209, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.62, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.62, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13506232849080416, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1561, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8649376715091959, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07393767150919583, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1576, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1576, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1531497750593234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8468502249406766, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.055850224940676596, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.092, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.092, "valinor_prob_under": 0.908, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1254, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0611497750593234, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1561, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0613, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0601, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -900, "expected_home_runs": 0.1785, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1635, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.09284, "model_over_probability": 0.1635, "model_under_probability": 0.8365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1305, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8695, "edge_over": 0.0284, "edge_under": -0.0635, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0284, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9305, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1635, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1575, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1027, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1132, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1502, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0199, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0284, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0224, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0199, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0324, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0363, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0199, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0151, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0531, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1567, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1305, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.1, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.1, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1341010692317347, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.155, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8658989307682653, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0036010692317346993, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1785, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1785, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1518633728180371, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8481366271819629, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.021363372818037102, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1027, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1027, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8973, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0324, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04916337281803711, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0199, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0199, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -955, "expected_home_runs": 0.1785, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1635, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.09284, "model_over_probability": 0.1635, "model_under_probability": 0.8365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9052, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8701, "edge_over": 0.0284, "edge_under": -0.0687, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0284, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9305, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1635, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1575, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1027, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1132, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1502, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0199, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0284, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0224, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0199, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0324, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0363, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0199, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0151, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0531, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1567, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 13, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1299, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.1, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.1, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1341010692317347, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.155, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8658989307682653, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0042010692317347165, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1785, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1785, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1518633728180371, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8481366271819629, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.02196337281803712, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1027, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1027, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8973, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0324, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04916337281803711, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0199, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0199, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1785, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1635, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.09284, "model_over_probability": 0.1635, "model_under_probability": 0.8365, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0284, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0284, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9305, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1635, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1575, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1027, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1132, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1502, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0199, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0284, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0224, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0199, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0324, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0363, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0199, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0151, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0531, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1567, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 14, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.1, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.1, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1341010692317347, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.155, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8658989307682653, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0199, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1785, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1785, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1518633728180371, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8481366271819629, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0199, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1027, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1027, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8973, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0324, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04916337281803711, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 345, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.1761, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1615, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0915, "model_over_probability": 0.1615, "model_under_probability": 0.8385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2247, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2169, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7831, "edge_over": -0.0632, "edge_under": 0.0272, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0272, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8041, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1615, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1689, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1659, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1639, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.17, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.154, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1866, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1623, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0707, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0632, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0558, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0526, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0588, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0381, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0526, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0624, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.17, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 15, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2169, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13322667855088954, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.154, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8667733214491105, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.08367332144911047, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1761, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1761, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.055651492502307526, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1659, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1659, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8341000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0588, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03267332144911045, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.154, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0707, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0526, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0211, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0209, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.009068, "model_over_probability": 0.0209, "model_under_probability": 0.9791, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0591, "edge_under": 0.0241, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0241, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9092, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 2.89, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.21, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0209, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.005, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0751, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0895, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0042, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0292, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0664, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0508, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0591, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.075, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0599, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0136, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0367, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0042, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Cleanest full-size trust pocket from the internal replay.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 16, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0773, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.21, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.21, "palantir_prob_over": 0.02274791870971925, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0292, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9772520812902807, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.054552081290280746, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0211, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0211, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0001141554042284549, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9998858445957716, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07718584459577153, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0751, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0751, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9249, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0049, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07498584459577154, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0292, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0508, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.08, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2169, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.195, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.114509, "model_over_probability": 0.195, "model_under_probability": 0.805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1686, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8314, "edge_over": 0.0196, "edge_under": -0.0599, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0196, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9856, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.195, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1776, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1694, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1666, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1767, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1895, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1647, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0301, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0196, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0022, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0033, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0141, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0107, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0313, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1767, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 18, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1686, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17755729734357847, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2055, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8224427026564215, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.008957297343578474, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2169, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2169, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.007351492502307516, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1694, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1694, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8306, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.006, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01630878984588599, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2055, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0301, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0033, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0211, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0209, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.009068, "model_over_probability": 0.0209, "model_under_probability": 0.9791, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0591, "edge_under": 0.0191, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0191, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9092, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 2.89, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.21, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0209, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.005, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0751, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0895, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0042, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0292, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0664, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0508, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0591, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.075, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0599, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0136, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0367, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0042, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Cleanest full-size trust pocket from the internal replay.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 20, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0769, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.21, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.21, "palantir_prob_over": 0.02274791870971925, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0292, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9772520812902807, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.05415208129028075, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0211, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0211, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0001141554042284549, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9998858445957716, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07678584459577154, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0751, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0751, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9249, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0049, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07498584459577154, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0292, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0508, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.08, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2169, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.195, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.114509, "model_over_probability": 0.195, "model_under_probability": 0.805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.018, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9856, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.195, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1776, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1694, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1666, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1767, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1895, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1647, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0285, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.018, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0006, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0049, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0076, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0125, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0123, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0313, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1767, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 21, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17755729734357847, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2055, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8224427026564215, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0285, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2169, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2169, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0049, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1694, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1694, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8306, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0076, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01630878984588599, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2055, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -460, "expected_home_runs": 0.1761, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1615, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0915, "model_over_probability": 0.1615, "model_under_probability": 0.8385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8214, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2093, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7907, "edge_over": -0.0559, "edge_under": 0.0171, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0171, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8041, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1615, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1689, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1659, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1639, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.17, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.154, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1866, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1623, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0634, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0559, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0485, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0453, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0515, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0551, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.17, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 22, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2093, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13322667855088954, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.154, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8667733214491105, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07607332144911047, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1761, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1761, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04805149250230753, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1659, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1659, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8341000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0515, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03267332144911045, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.154, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0634, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0453, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -600, "expected_home_runs": 0.2169, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.195, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.114509, "model_over_probability": 0.195, "model_under_probability": 0.805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8276, "edge_over": 0.0164, "edge_under": -0.0521, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0164, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9856, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.195, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1776, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1694, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1666, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1767, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1895, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1647, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0269, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0164, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.001, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0065, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0092, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0139, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0313, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1767, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 23, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1724, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17755729734357847, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2055, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8224427026564215, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.005157297343578476, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2169, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2169, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.011151492502307514, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1694, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1694, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8306, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0092, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01630878984588599, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2055, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0269, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0065, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "hitter_id": 656775, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -835, "expected_home_runs": 0.172, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.158, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.089164, "model_over_probability": 0.158, "model_under_probability": 0.842, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.893, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.863, "edge_over": 0.0162, "edge_under": -0.051, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0162, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8786, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.01, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.158, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1409, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.09, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1024, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.14, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1451, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1283, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0033, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0162, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0009, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0063, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0518, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0063, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0135, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.14, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 24, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.137, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12542342352665753, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1451, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8745765764733424, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.011576576473342481, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.172, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.172, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1406155684590021, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8593844315409979, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0036155684590020998, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.09, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.09, "valinor_prob_under": 0.91, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0518, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.050615568459002114, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1451, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0033, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0063, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "hitter_id": 656775, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -885, "expected_home_runs": 0.172, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.158, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.089164, "model_over_probability": 0.158, "model_under_probability": 0.842, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8985, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1363, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8637, "edge_over": 0.0162, "edge_under": -0.0565, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0162, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8786, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.01, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.158, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1409, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.09, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1024, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.14, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1451, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1283, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0033, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0162, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0009, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0063, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0518, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0063, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0135, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.14, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 25, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1363, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12542342352665753, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1451, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8745765764733424, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.010876576473342475, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.172, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.172, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1406155684590021, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8593844315409979, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.004315568459002106, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.09, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.09, "valinor_prob_under": 0.91, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0518, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.050615568459002114, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1451, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0033, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0063, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "hitter_id": 656775, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.172, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.158, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.089164, "model_over_probability": 0.158, "model_under_probability": 0.842, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0162, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0162, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8786, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.01, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.158, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1409, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.09, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1024, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.14, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1451, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1283, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0033, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0162, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0009, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0063, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0518, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0063, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0135, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.14, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 26, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12542342352665753, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1451, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8745765764733424, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0033, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.172, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.172, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1406155684590021, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8593844315409979, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0063, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.09, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.09, "valinor_prob_under": 0.91, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0518, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.050615568459002114, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1451, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.082037, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.128, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.872, "edge_over": 0.0147, "edge_under": -0.0496, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0147, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1472, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1715, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0769, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.091, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1727, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1636, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1739, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0311, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0147, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.039, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0679, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0414, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1727, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 27, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.128, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.1, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.1, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14160009968809179, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1636, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8583999003119083, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.013600099688091782, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1592, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16497924836815533, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8350207516318446, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03697924836815533, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0769, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0769, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9231, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0556, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.08807924836815534, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1636, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0311, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0466, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -980, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.082037, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8726, "edge_over": 0.0147, "edge_under": -0.0546, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0147, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1472, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1715, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0769, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.091, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1727, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1636, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1739, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0311, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0147, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.039, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0679, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0414, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1727, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 28, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1274, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.1, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.1, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14160009968809179, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1636, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8583999003119083, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.014200099688091772, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1592, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16497924836815533, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8350207516318446, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03757924836815532, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0769, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0769, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9231, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0556, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.08807924836815534, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1636, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0311, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0466, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.082037, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0139, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0139, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1472, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1715, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0769, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.091, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1727, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1636, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1739, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0303, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0139, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0382, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0458, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0564, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0671, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0406, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4044, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1727, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 32, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.1, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.1, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14160009968809179, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1636, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8583999003119083, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0303, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1592, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16497924836815533, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8350207516318446, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0458, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0769, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0769, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9231, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0564, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.08807924836815534, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1636, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.1734, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1592, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.089963, "model_over_probability": 0.1592, "model_under_probability": 0.8408, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8919, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1424, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8576, "edge_over": 0.0111, "edge_under": -0.0511, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0111, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9344, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1592, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1744, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0943, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1061, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1752, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1646, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1991, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1728, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0165, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0111, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0263, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.031, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0538, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.031, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0247, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2805, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1752, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 33, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1424, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14246961596489452, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1646, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8575303840351055, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 6.961596489452049e-05, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1734, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1734, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16497924836815533, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8350207516318446, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.022579248368155336, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0943, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0943, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9057, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0538, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07067924836815534, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1646, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0165, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.031, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.1734, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1592, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.089963, "model_over_probability": 0.1592, "model_under_probability": 0.8408, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1443, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8557, "edge_over": 0.0099, "edge_under": -0.0449, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0099, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9344, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1592, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1744, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0943, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1061, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1752, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1646, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1991, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1728, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0153, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0099, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0251, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0298, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0498, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0235, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2805, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1752, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 35, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1443, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14246961596489452, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1646, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8575303840351055, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0018303840351054923, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1734, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1734, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16497924836815533, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8350207516318446, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.020679248368155323, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0943, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0943, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9057, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.055, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07067924836815534, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1646, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0153, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0298, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1734, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1592, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.089963, "model_over_probability": 0.1592, "model_under_probability": 0.8408, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0099, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0099, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9344, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1592, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1744, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0943, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1061, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1752, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1646, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1991, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1728, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0153, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0099, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0251, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0298, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0498, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0235, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2805, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1752, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 36, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14246961596489452, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1646, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8575303840351055, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0153, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1734, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1734, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16497924836815533, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8350207516318446, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0298, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0943, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0943, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9057, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.055, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07067924836815534, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1646, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.041063, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": 0.0008, "edge_under": -0.0358, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.69, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0808, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.098, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0868, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0989, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0822, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0994, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1028, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0022, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0008, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.018, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0234, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0194, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0234, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0228, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2414, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0989, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 78, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 40, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0773, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.06948236137466052, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0822, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9305176386253395, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.007817638625339476, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0843, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12045710981827518, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8795428901817248, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.04315710981827518, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0721, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0721, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9279, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0079, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05097474844361466, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0822, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0022, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1034, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0234, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.041063, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": 0.0008, "edge_under": -0.0408, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.69, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0808, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.098, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0868, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0989, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0822, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0994, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1028, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0022, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0008, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.018, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0234, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0194, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0234, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0228, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2414, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0989, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 78, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 41, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0769, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.06948236137466052, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0822, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9305176386253395, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.007417638625339479, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0843, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12045710981827518, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8795428901817248, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.04355710981827518, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0721, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0721, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9279, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0079, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05097474844361466, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0822, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0022, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1034, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0234, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0808, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.041063, "model_over_probability": 0.0808, "model_under_probability": 0.9192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0008, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.69, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0808, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.098, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0868, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0989, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0822, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0994, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1028, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0022, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0008, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.018, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0234, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0194, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0234, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0228, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2414, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0989, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 78, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 42, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.06948236137466052, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0822, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9305176386253395, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0022, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0843, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0843, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12045710981827518, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8795428901817248, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0234, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0721, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0721, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9279, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0079, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05097474844361466, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0822, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1034, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.1674, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1541, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.086576, "model_over_probability": 0.1541, "model_under_probability": 0.8459, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.845, "edge_over": -0.0072, "edge_under": -0.0336, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0072, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8465, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1541, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1678, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1361, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1404, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1685, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1604, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1933, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1679, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0009, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0072, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0065, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0108, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0252, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0066, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1685, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 39, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.155, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13881416094425558, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1604, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8611858390557444, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.016185839055744417, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1674, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1674, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.006248507497692485, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1361, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1361, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8639, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0252, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025148507497692485, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1604, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0009, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0108, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.1674, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1541, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.086576, "model_over_probability": 0.1541, "model_under_probability": 0.8459, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1571, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8429, "edge_over": -0.0085, "edge_under": -0.0267, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8465, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1541, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1678, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1361, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1404, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1685, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1604, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1933, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1679, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0022, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0085, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0095, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0265, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0307, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0053, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1685, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 37, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1571, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13881416094425558, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1604, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8611858390557444, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.018285839055744407, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1674, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1674, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.004148507497692494, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1361, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1361, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8639, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0265, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025148507497692485, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1604, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0022, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0095, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1674, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1541, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.086576, "model_over_probability": 0.1541, "model_under_probability": 0.8459, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0085, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8465, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1541, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1678, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1361, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1404, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1685, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1604, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1933, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1679, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0022, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0085, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0095, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0265, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0307, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0053, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1685, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 38, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13881416094425558, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1604, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8611858390557444, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0022, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1674, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1674, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0095, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1361, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1361, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8639, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0265, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025148507497692485, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1604, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "hitter_id": 665862, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.102481, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": -0.011, "edge_under": -0.0284, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9534, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1777, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1738, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1765, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1721, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1732, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1817, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1863, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1621, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.007, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.011, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0149, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0166, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0122, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0266, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0542, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1732, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 34, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1815, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15725509661735748, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1817, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8427449033826425, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.024244903382642513, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1956, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.02025149250230751, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1765, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1765, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8235, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0122, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01924490338264251, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1817, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.007, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0166, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0611, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0593, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.028938, "model_over_probability": 0.0593, "model_under_probability": 0.9407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0207, "edge_under": -0.0143, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0143, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8728, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0593, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0107, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1037, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.114, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0119, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0527, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0538, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0801, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0273, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0207, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0693, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0237, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0001, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0943, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0119, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Healthy upside profile, but still more aggressive than the Balanced core.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 31, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0773, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 6.2, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 6.2, "palantir_prob_over": 0.04320319964713859, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0527, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9567968003528614, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0340968003528614, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0611, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0611, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0001141554042284549, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9998858445957716, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07718584459577153, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1037, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1037, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8963, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0237, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.10358584459577154, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0527, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0273, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.08, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "hitter_id": 665862, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.102481, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8142, "edge_over": -0.0146, "edge_under": -0.0202, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0146, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9534, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1777, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1738, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1765, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1721, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1732, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1817, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1863, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1621, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0106, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0146, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0185, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0202, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0202, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0302, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0542, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1732, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 29, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1858, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15725509661735748, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1817, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8427449033826425, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.02854490338264251, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1956, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.02455149250230751, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1765, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1765, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8235, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0158, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01924490338264251, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1817, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0106, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0202, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "hitter_id": 665862, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.102481, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0146, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0146, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9534, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1777, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1738, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1765, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1721, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1732, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1817, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1863, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1621, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0106, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0146, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0185, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0202, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0202, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0302, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0542, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1732, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 30, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15725509661735748, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1817, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8427449033826425, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0106, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1956, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0202, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1765, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1765, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8235, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0158, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01924490338264251, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1817, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0611, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0593, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.028938, "model_over_probability": 0.0593, "model_under_probability": 0.9407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0207, "edge_under": -0.0193, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0193, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8728, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0593, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0107, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1037, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.114, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0119, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0527, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0538, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0801, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0273, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0207, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0693, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0237, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0001, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0943, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0119, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Healthy upside profile, but still more aggressive than the Balanced core.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 19, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0769, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 6.2, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 6.2, "palantir_prob_over": 0.04320319964713859, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0527, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9567968003528614, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.033696800352861406, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0611, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0611, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0001141554042284549, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9998858445957716, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07678584459577154, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1037, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1037, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8963, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0237, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.10358584459577154, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0527, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0273, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.08, "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0611, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0593, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.028938, "model_over_probability": 0.0593, "model_under_probability": 0.9407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0207, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0207, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8728, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0593, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0107, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1037, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.114, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0119, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0527, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0538, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0801, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0273, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0207, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0693, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0237, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0001, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0943, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0119, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Healthy upside profile, but still more aggressive than the Balanced core.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 17, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 6.2, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 6.2, "palantir_prob_over": 0.04320319964713859, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0527, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9567968003528614, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0273, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0611, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0611, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0001141554042284549, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9998858445957716, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1037, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1037, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8963, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0237, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.10358584459577154, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0527, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0211, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0209, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.009068, "model_over_probability": 0.0209, "model_under_probability": 0.9791, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0591, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0591, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9092, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.39, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 2.89, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.21, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.21, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0209, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.005, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0751, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0895, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0042, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0292, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0664, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0508, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0591, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.075, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0599, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0136, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0367, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0042, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Cleanest full-size trust pocket from the internal replay.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.21, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.21, "palantir_prob_over": 0.02274791870971925, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0292, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9772520812902807, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0508, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0211, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0211, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0001141554042284549, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9998858445957716, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08, "fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0751, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0751, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9249, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0049, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07498584459577154, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0292, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1761, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1615, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0915, "model_over_probability": 0.1615, "model_under_probability": 0.8385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0607, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0607, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8041, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1615, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1689, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1659, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1639, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.17, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.154, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1866, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1623, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0682, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0607, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0533, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0501, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0563, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0599, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.17, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13322667855088954, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.154, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8667733214491105, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0682, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1761, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1761, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0501, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1659, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1659, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8341000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0563, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03267332144911045, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.154, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1576, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1458, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.081123, "model_over_probability": 0.1458, "model_under_probability": 0.8542, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.074, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.074, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8474, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.84, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1458, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1539, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.092, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1042, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.155, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1561, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1787, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1559, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0637, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.074, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0659, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0625, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1278, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0411, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0625, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0639, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.249, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.155, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.62, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.62, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13506232849080416, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1561, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8649376715091959, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0637, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1576, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1576, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1531497750593234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8468502249406766, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0625, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.092, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.092, "valinor_prob_under": 0.908, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1278, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0611497750593234, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1561, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1623, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1498, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.083741, "model_over_probability": 0.1498, "model_under_probability": 0.8502, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0828, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0828, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.875, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.959, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.886, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1498, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1117, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1324, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1374, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1127, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1257, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1026, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1046, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1069, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0828, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1209, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1292, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.13, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1292, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.128, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.333, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1127, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.55, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.55, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10829335511029294, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1257, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8917066448897071, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1069, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1623, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1623, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12045710981827518, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8795428901817248, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1292, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1324, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1324, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8676, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1002, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.024106644889707055, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1257, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1034, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-10-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2144, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.113103, "model_over_probability": 0.193, "model_under_probability": 0.807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1055, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1055, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.017, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.193, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1771, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.2256, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2099, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1763, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1816, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1872, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1628, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1169, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1055, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1214, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1264, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0729, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1113, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1357, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1763, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15716910137915555, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1816, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8428308986208445, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1169, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2144, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2144, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.16124850749769248, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8387514925023075, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1264, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2256, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2256, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7744, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0729, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06843089862084445, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1816, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20261005T113749Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20261004T113955Z", "captured_at": "2026-10-05T12:03:55.395291+00:00" } ], "value_plays": [], "unmatched_inputs": [] }