{ "date": "2026-09-27", "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-27T08:03:22.700906", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-27", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 144 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 234, "matched_count": 234, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 234, "matched_rows": 234, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 79, "under_recommendation_count": 10, "strong_count": 2, "play_count": 14, "lean_count": 73, "no_play_count": 145, "average_edge_over": 0.0038, "average_edge_under": -0.0415, "value_play_count": 0 }, "edge_count": 234, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.1967, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1786, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.103099, "model_over_probability": 0.1786, "model_under_probability": 0.8214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7066, "edge_over": -0.1244, "edge_under": 0.0917, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0917, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1786, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1624, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.2247, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.223, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1616, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1732, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1517, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.135, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1244, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1406, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1457, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0783, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1298, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1457, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1513, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1616, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2934, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1386024534070126, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.168, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8613975465929874, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1547975465929874, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1967, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1967, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.14545842765025602, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.854541572349744, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.14794157234974398, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2247, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2247, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7753, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0783, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0860975465929874, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.168, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.135, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1457, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": -295, "expected_home_runs": 0.1967, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1786, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.103099, "model_over_probability": 0.1786, "model_under_probability": 0.8214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2825, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7175, "edge_over": -0.1155, "edge_under": 0.0746, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0746, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1786, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1624, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.2247, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.223, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1616, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1732, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1517, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1261, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1155, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1317, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1368, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0694, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1209, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1368, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1424, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1616, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2825, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1386024534070126, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.168, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8613975465929874, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.14389754659298737, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1967, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1967, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.14545842765025602, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.854541572349744, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.13704157234974396, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2247, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2247, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7753, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0694, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0860975465929874, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.168, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1261, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1368, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -320, "expected_home_runs": 0.1892, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1724, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.098858, "model_over_probability": 0.1724, "model_under_probability": 0.8276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, 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"two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 905, "under_odds": -1450, "expected_home_runs": 0.1629, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1503, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.08407, "model_over_probability": 0.1503, "model_under_probability": 0.8497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0995, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0961, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9039, "edge_over": 0.0508, "edge_under": -0.0858, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0508, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.98, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1503, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1376, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0971, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1103, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1369, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1387, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1272, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1194, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0392, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0508, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0381, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0341, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0341, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0199, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, 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"recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": -1535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1629, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1503, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.08407, "model_over_probability": 0.1503, "model_under_probability": 0.8497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9388, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0971, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9029, "edge_over": 0.0493, "edge_under": -0.0891, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0493, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, 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without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 27, "edge_direction_rank": 14, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1171, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.98, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1915, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.151, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1423, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1509, "hr_valinor_model_version": 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.98, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1915, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.151, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1423, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1509, "hr_valinor_model_version": 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null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1097, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1597758052987495, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1929, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8402241947012505, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.050075805298749484, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1694, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1694, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15578121708822806, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.844218782911772, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.04608121708822806, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1104, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1104, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8896, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0032, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, 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"palantir_gap_pct": -0.004413089956872215, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1642, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1642, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13777391169459696, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.862226088305403, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.027373911694596964, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1088, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1088, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8912, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0061, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03178700165146918, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1309, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.016, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0273, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 770, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1642, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1514, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.084794, "model_over_probability": 0.1514, "model_under_probability": 0.8486, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1149, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0365, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0365, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8668, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.989, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.916, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1514, 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null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01570265307375615, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1501, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0168, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0425, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, 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"suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 159, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15776465607533782, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1905, 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1569, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1569, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8431, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0155, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0052063157411553485, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1905, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1784, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1634, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.092773, "model_over_probability": 0.1634, "model_under_probability": 0.8366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1436, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8564, "edge_over": 0.0141, "edge_under": -0.0541, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0141, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9892, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.866, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1634, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1575, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1557, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1627, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1744, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1709, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1499, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0251, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0141, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0082, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0057, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0064, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0057, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0006, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable 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drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 160, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1436, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.64, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.64, "palantir_prob_over": 0.144107410108135, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1744, "palantir_prob_under": 0.855892589891865, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0005074101081349869, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1784, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1784, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.14431801221627696, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8556819877837231, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0007180122162769587, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1557, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1557, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8443, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0064, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011592589891865013, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1744, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0251, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0057, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -975, "expected_home_runs": 0.1584, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1465, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.08158, "model_over_probability": 0.1465, "model_under_probability": 0.8535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1275, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8725, "edge_over": 0.014, "edge_under": -0.0535, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.014, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.051, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.866, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1465, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1541, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1384, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1475, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1552, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1728, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1514, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.027, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.014, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0216, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0248, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0059, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0248, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0189, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1552, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, 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"edge_over": -0.0004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0004, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.048, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.98, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1613, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1613, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8387, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0274, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015841572349743982, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1795, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2038, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1844, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.107102, "model_over_probability": 0.1844, "model_under_probability": 0.8156, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7879, "edge_over": -0.0354, "edge_under": -0.0009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0009, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model 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"valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0236, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.10353309316587203, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0629, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.106548, "model_over_probability": 0.1836, "model_under_probability": 0.8164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.791, "edge_over": -0.0338, "edge_under": -0.0066, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0066, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9211, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.25, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.98, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.001, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1836, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1805, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, 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null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.065, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.00544641936355833, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1817, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0357, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0383, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -735, "expected_home_runs": 0.1665, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1534, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.086113, "model_over_probability": 0.1534, "model_under_probability": 0.8466, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8462, "edge_over": -0.0066, "edge_under": -0.0336, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0066, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9079, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.866, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1534, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1455, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, 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"valinor_gap_pct": -0.0028, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037105073235728786, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1468, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0132, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0178, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -530, "expected_home_runs": 0.1811, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.094253, "model_over_probability": 0.1656, "model_under_probability": 0.8344, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8125, "edge_over": -0.0286, "edge_under": -0.0069, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0069, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", 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0.1654, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1565, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1633, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1663, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1773, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1776, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1551, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.05, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.025, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0619, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.07, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0708, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0497, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.07, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0722, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, 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interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 187, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2196, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14658805347196988, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1773, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8534119465280301, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07301194652803011, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.226, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.226, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.14545842765025602, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.854541572349744, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07414157234974397, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1565, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1565, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8435, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0708, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011041572349743983, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1773, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.05, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.07, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.1735, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1593, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.09003, "model_over_probability": 0.1593, "model_under_probability": 0.8407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8361, "edge_over": -0.0102, "edge_under": -0.0242, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0102, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.946, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1593, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1397, 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"fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1387, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded 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"palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1735, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1735, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1331756852502343, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8668243147497657, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.030724314749765697, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1503, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1503, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8497, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0192, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04717048061163613, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1277, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0418, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0359, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1735, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1593, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.09003, "model_over_probability": 0.1593, "model_under_probability": 0.8407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0102, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0102, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.924, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.946, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1593, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1397, 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"fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1387, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded 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"valinor_prob_over": 0.1714, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1714, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8286, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.001, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03038406248334155, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1708, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0016, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0003, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -620, "expected_home_runs": 0.1656, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1526, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.085585, "model_over_probability": 0.1526, "model_under_probability": 0.8474, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.168, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.832, "edge_over": -0.0213, "edge_under": -0.0137, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0137, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8671, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.051, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.866, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1526, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1188, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1782, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1824, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1196, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1229, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1105, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.051, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0213, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0551, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0625, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0612, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0625, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0634, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": 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"SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1516, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1407, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.077808, "model_over_probability": 0.1407, "model_under_probability": 0.8593, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0193, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0193, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8101, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.051, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.866, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1407, 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"platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8465, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1416, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1536, 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"opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1656, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1526, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.085585, "model_over_probability": 0.1526, "model_under_probability": 0.8474, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0198, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0198, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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"valinor_prob_under": 0.8218, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0058, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07936542224027106, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1229, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1114, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", 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"platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9512, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.085, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.001, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2023, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1654, 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"valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0657, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011041572349743983, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1773, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0449, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0649, "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", 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0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1811, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.094253, "model_over_probability": 0.1656, "model_under_probability": 0.8344, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0267, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0267, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.858, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.085, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.001, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1656, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1413, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1426, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1512, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.14, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1264, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1291, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1205, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0659, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0267, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.051, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0587, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0497, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0632, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0718, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2367, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model 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"market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1515, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1406, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.077744, "model_over_probability": 0.1406, "model_under_probability": 0.8594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0555, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0555, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8117, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.051, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.866, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1406, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1417, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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"market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0241, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0238, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.010467, "model_over_probability": 0.0238, "model_under_probability": 0.9762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0562, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0562, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", 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0.0219, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.10183309316587204, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0333, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.985, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.911, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1491, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1532, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1534, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1607, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1538, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1726, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1512, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.08, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0731, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.069, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0672, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0688, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0496, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0672, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.071, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model 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"hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11603057924687848, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1422, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8839694207531215, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.08, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": 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"valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037369420753121524, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-27T12:03:16.401110+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.975, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.916, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1435, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1532, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1286, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1387, "hr_valinor_model_version": 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